12/1/2023 0 Comments Particles dust overlay![]() RAL | Tropical Cyclone Guidance Project | Real-Time Guidance ()Īctivity this year seems to be high in Western Pacific Basin, which most often means we will have a light season in the Atlantic.īut this are very general trends, and it also says nothing about where one will hit or how strong one might get if it forms.Īnd it can be the quietest season ever, but if a single powerful one forms and hits where you live, it may seem like the worst season ever.Ĭlimatologically, less that 10 per hundred years can be expected to be on the map on August 12th.Īlso a month from now, >90 tropical storms per 100 years will be on the map.īut even this frequency can be misleading: Some years have a bunch on the map at Labor Day, and many years have zero. Western Pacific has two named storms on the map right now, the 5th and 7th of the season in that basin: Storms that form off the coast of Mexico almost never get anywhere near Hawaii, and at this time of year, it is common for storms to be forming one after another in the Pacific near Mexico.Įastern Pacific is already up to 99 investigation areas so far this year, There are actually two regions of Pacific development, East and West, and rarely do they overlap at all. There is an inverse relationship between activity in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, which a lot of activity in one basin rarely coinciding with a lot of activity in the other. In the huge tropical storm years of 20, tropical activity was very quiet until the end of August, and then it was like someone flipped a switch, and every area of clouds seemed to rapidly develop. Most years have nothing on the map at this point, except some tropical waves. So there is nothing unusual at all for nothing to form at this time of year. At that point, the odds shoot way up quickly, for a whole bunch of climatological reasons. No clouds, no convection, and nothing to organize into a tropical cyclone.īut it is uncommon for storms to form prior to the end of August. Clouds cannot form in an inversion layer, period. This is the most stable at atmosphere can be. Sometimes the temp actually rises with height, and this is called an inversion. Warm layers aloft are called cap layers, because they stop convection from occurring. IOW, the environmental lapse rate must be higher than the adiabatic rate. Rising air needs to continuously rise into cooler air as it rises and cools, or it will stop rising. Warm air aloft inhibits convection all by itself, strongly. On a different note, Sahara dust inhibits storm formation via a few mechanisms, but the most important is probably that the dust absorbs solar energy and thus heats up the layer in which the dust resides. ![]() Only once conditions are good and a storm forms do forecasts have much value at all. No one can possibly know ahead of time how many there will be, where they will form if they do, how strong they will get, and where they will move. So anyone predicting more than usual based on ocean water temps is making a guess with little basis in historical trends.Īnd all such forecasts are just that, guesses. Once a pocket a Saharan Dust begins moving westward over the Atlantic, it is relatively easy to track using infrared satellite products.Įl nino years are noted for having less than average number of tropical storms in eh Atlantic Basin. Since one of the key ingredients for tropical cyclone development is a deep feed of moisture, Saharan Dust often acts to inhibit tropical development. The Saharan Air Layer is a well-mixed dry pocket of air that usually resides between 5,000 and 15,000 feet above sea level. This dust is carried in the African Waves which push westward into the Atlantic Ocean. The Saharan Air Layer, also known as Saharan Dust, is made of sand, dirt, and other dust that is lifted into the atmosphere from the vast desert area that covers most of North Africa. NOAA has a description here.Īt MyFoxHurricane, they have this to say: The water is very warm so after the dust disperses there is a risk for strong hurricane to develop as we get later in the month!Īnd there you have it, “dust in the wind” is preventing formation of “Cape Verde” type hurricanes. This has prohibited the development of tropical storms over the region. This is a satellite picture with the colors showing dry air & Sahara Dust coming across the Tropical Atlantic. Meteorologist Ross Hays writes on Facebook:
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